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The world is on track to surpass ten billion people around the year 2065 under the most realistic scenario for global social, economic and climate development, according to newly updated long‑term projections by Austrian demographers.
A Higher Peak Than Previously Expected
Researchers from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg and the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (WIC) have revised their earlier forecasts for the second time since 2018. Their new model, WIC2023, integrates updated global data on population, education and migration — as well as demographic effects of the Covid‑19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
Under this scenario, the global population will continue to grow for longer than previously assumed, reaching:
- Just over 10 billion people between 2065 and 2070
- A peak of around 10.13 billion between 2080 and 2085
- A slight decline to about 9.88 billion by 2100
The upward revision is largely due to higher education levels worldwide, which reduce birth rates less strongly than earlier models predicted.
The Scenario Behind the Numbers
The calculations are based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) — the same framework used by the IPCC to model climate futures. The central assumption is SSP2, often described as the “middle road” or “continuation of current trends”. Under SSP2:
- Global income inequality continues to widen
- International cooperation improves only slightly
- Environmental conditions deteriorate further
- Population growth slows, but does not stop
This “middle‑road” pathway results in moderate but long‑lasting population growth.
Regional Outlook for 2100
By the end of the century, the world’s population distribution would look roughly like this:
- Asia: ~4.5 billion
- Africa: >3.5 billion
- Europe: 671 million
- Latin America: 669 million
- North America: 450 million
- Oceania: 62 million
These figures reflect starkly different demographic dynamics — from Africa’s youthful populations to Europe’s aging societies.
Alternative Futures
The researchers emphasize that other pathways remain possible. In a scenario where the world continues on a “fossil fuel path”, global warming would intensify significantly, potentially making large regions less habitable and causing a marked decline in global population.
A World Growing Longer Than Expected
The new WIC2023 projections show that humanity will grow larger — and for longer — than earlier demographic models anticipated. While surpassing ten billion people is not inherently a crisis, researchers warn that the real challenge lies in how societies manage resources, climate pressures and inequality in the decades ahead.
- Hector Pascua with Reports from orf.at/ picture: pixabay.com
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